Decided Voters Show Very Little Movement On National Political Scene
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Undecided Voters And Non-Voters In Canada Hold The Political Balance
As the minority governing federal Liberal Party caucus starts their national summer meeting Monday in Regina it would appear that the national political landscape has stabilized over the last few months. According to the latest Ipsos Reid national survey, provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, Paul Martin and the Liberals (36%, +1 point from a June 21-23, 2005 survey) continue to hold an 8-point lead over the Stephen Harper led Conservatives (28%, +1 point), while Jack Layton and the NDP (17%, -1 point) and Jim Harris and the Green Party (6%, unchanged) have stable levels of support.
In Quebec, support for the Bloc Quebecois (47%, -4 points) has dipped very slightly while Liberal support (26%, -1 point) remains steady.
But the poll also indicates that this summer has a rare occurrence – a substantial rise in the proportion of “undecided voters”: currently, 19% of voters in Canada are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow (up 6 points from the last national political survey).[1] Further, with the Gomery Commission having concluded its hearings in Quebec and out of the news, and with a newly appointed Governor General designate from that province, voters there -with the undecided rate now at almost one-quarter of all voters (22%, +9 points) — may prove to be fallow ground for the Liberals to plough.
For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample’s regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
The National Vote…
According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 36% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals (+1 point), 28% for the Conservatives (+1 point), 17% for the NDP (-1 point), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 47% support (-4 points) and now hold a 21-point lead over the Liberals (26%, -1 point).
Among all Canadians, 19% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow – up 6 points from the last survey.
Please visit www.ipsos.ca to view tabular tracking results.
The largest increase in undecided vote from the last survey has occurred in Quebec (22%, + 9 points), among those over the age of 55 (23%, +11 points), and among women (24%, +7 points).
Regional Vote Highlights…
· In Ontario, the Liberals (45%, +3 points) lead, followed by the Conservatives (29%, -1 point), the NDP (19%, -2 points), and the Green Party (6%, +1 point).
· In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds steady (47%, -4 points) and have a 21-point lead over the Liberals (26%, -1 point) – the Conservatives (12%, +5 points), the NDP (9%, -1 point), and the Green Party (5%, unchanged) register lowly on the Federal radar screen.
· In British Columbia, the Liberals (38%, +3 points) are in first place, while the Conservative Party (25%, – 2 points) and the NDP (25%, -1 point) are tied for second – the Green Party trails with 10% support (unchanged).
· In Alberta, the Conservative Party (56%, -7 points) has an impressive lead, but the Liberals (24%, +8 points) have made some gains. The NDP (13%, +1 point), and the Green Party (7%, – 1 point) battle for the bottom rungs in this province.
· In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservative Party (34%, -1 point) and the NDP (32%, +6 points) are essentially tied, and are followed closely by the Liberals (29%, -4 points)- the Green Party has 2% of decided votes (-2 points).
· In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (46%, -6 points) are leading, as the Conservatives (31%, +6 points), the NDP (17%, -1 point) and the Green Party (5%, +3 points) trail.
@ August 22, 2005