Liberal Party Sinks While NDP Gains
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Gomery Report Shakes Up National Support For Main Parties
This is a follow up poll which looks at the change in public opinion over the last fourteen days along with some comparative Gomery questions from our survey in May.
Because of the number of stats (and regional sub-tabs), only the highlights are included here.
Highlights
The federal Liberals have dropped six points in two weeks (40% to 34%), Tory support is unchanged (28%) while the NDP have picked up five points in the same period (15% to 20%). Green Party support is unchanged (4%). The BQ are up two points nationally (in Quebec BQ 54%, Lib 24%, CP 9%, NDP 8%, GP 4%).
Polling indicates that there have been no major changes in support directly arising from the Gomery report released on November 1st. The results of testing related to the direct impact of the November 1st Gomery report did not change (within the margin of accuracy).
Although 48% of Canadians think the scandal is about a few bad apples, in the past six months there has been a 13 point increase in the number of Canadians who tar the whole Liberal party with the scandal.
Canadians are most likely to consider both Paul Martin and Jean Chretien responsible (54% up 11 points since May) but the percentage who exclusively considered Paul Martin responsible has dropped from 29% to 8% nationally in the past six months.
Analysis
“Polling indicates that the November 1 Gomery report has not been the main driver for shifts in public opinion in the past two weeks. The Layton-led New Democrats have been the main winner. It would seem that Layton taking centre stage on the timing of the next election has positively driven NDP support.”
“The Gomery report has been a mixed bag for the Liberals. On the one hand the percentage of Canadians who think that Paul Martin should exclusively take responsibility has noticeably dropped 21 points to 8% of Canadians. On the other hand the percentage of Canadians who think the scandal is indicative of a broader problem with the Liberal Party of Canada has increased 13 points to 43%.”
“Strategically for the Liberals we are likely to see a campaign with a very heavy emphasis on Paul Martin and less emphasis on the Liberal brand.”
The detailed tables with the methodology and regional subtabs are posted at: www.sesresearch.com
@ November 16, 2005